Australian Dollar Gains; Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecast(页 1) - 房地产贷款投资专区 -
2007-8-14 01:12
zwilliam
Australian Dollar Gains; Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecast
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose, gaining the most among the 16 most-active currencies today, after the central bank forecast inflation to accelerate, less than a week after raising borrowing costs to an 11-year high.
The currency snapped two days of gains and government bonds extended their decline after the Reserve Bank of Australia said core inflation will quicken to 3 percent by December and remain at the top of its target range next year. Australia's dollar has advanced 7.5 percent this year and reached an 18-year high with the economy in its 16th year of growth, supported by demand for the commodities the country exports.
``We should see the Australian dollar sustain its rally,'' said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``This was a significant upward revision to underlying inflation and firms the RBA's tightening bias.''
Australia's dollar gained 0.4 percent to 84.76 U.S. cents at 4:48 p.m. in Sydney from 84.69 cents immediately before the RBA's statement and 84.43 cents late in New York Aug. 10. The currency will rise above 85 cents today, Grace said.
The yield on the Australian government two-year bond gained to 6.39 percent from 6.38 percent before the report and 6.30 percent late last week. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
The central bank increased rates to 6.5 percent last week after second-quarter inflation was higher than it had forecast.
Traders raised the odds of a rate rise by the end of the year as the yield on the 30-day interbank cash-rate future due in December climbed 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.58 percent.
`Hawkish Statement'
In May, the central bank forecast underlying inflation would be 2.5 percent this year and between 2.5 percent and 3 percent by June 2008. Economic growth will accelerate to 4.25 percent in the year ending June 30, the Reserve Bank said in Sydney today in its quarterly statement on monetary policy.
``This was clearly a hawkish statement and it lays the groundwork for another RBA rate hike,'' said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at St. Helens Investors in Sydney.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will give his semi-annual testimony on Aug. 17.
Still, Bennett said the currency pared gains made on the RBA statement because of the ongoing uncertainty related to credit markets.
Australia's dollar has declined against 13 of the 16 most- traded currencies this quarter as investors cut positions in so- called carry trades, as losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages caused a credit squeeze. The Australian dollar was one of the favorite carry-trade currencies as investors took advantage of the country's 6 percentage point rate advantage over Japan to buy higher-yielding assets with borrowed yen.
The currency was at 100.42 yen from 99.96 yen late in New York last week.
Risk Aversion
``Australian dollar is faced with yen carry trades being unwound and a general shift to risk aversion that is yet to fully run its course,'' Bennett said. ``That will lead to an ongoing period of selling.''
The currency may touch 82.50 cents before rising again, helped by its commodity exports to Asia, Bennett said.
Raw material exports, which add about 14 percent to Australia's economic growth, have helped the currency gain 57 percent over the past five years. The Westpac Commodity Futures Index, an export weighted average of exchange-traded commodity futures prices, has more than doubled in the same period.
Five-Month High
The currency also advanced to the highest in five months against the New Zealand dollar.
Australia's dollar has gained 4 percent against its neighbors' currency since July 26 when Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor raised rates to 8.25 percent and said the cost of borrowing may be high enough to contain inflation.
``We definitely like the Aussie more than the kiwi,'' said Danica Hampton, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington, referring to the currencies by their nicknames. ``The Australian central bank has a risk of a further rate hike whereas the RBNZ is closer to its peak.''
Australia's dollar was at NZ$1.1403 and reached NZ$1.1430, the highest since March 8.
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose, gaining the most among the 16 most-active currencies today, after the central bank forecast inflation to accelerate, less than a week after raising borrowing costs to an 11-year high.
The currency snapped two days of gains and government bonds extended their decline after the Reserve Bank of Australia said core inflation will quicken to 3 percent by December and remain at the top of its target range next year. Australia's dollar has advanced 7.5 percent this year and reached an 18-year high with the economy in its 16th year of growth, supported by demand for the commodities the country exports.
``We should see the Australian dollar sustain its rally,'' said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``This was a significant upward revision to underlying inflation and firms the RBA's tightening bias.''
Australia's dollar gained 0.4 percent to 84.76 U.S. cents at 4:48 p.m. in Sydney from 84.69 cents immediately before the RBA's statement and 84.43 cents late in New York Aug. 10. The currency will rise above 85 cents today, Grace said.
The yield on the Australian government two-year bond gained to 6.39 percent from 6.38 percent before the report and 6.30 percent late last week. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
The central bank increased rates to 6.5 percent last week after second-quarter inflation was higher than it had forecast.
Traders raised the odds of a rate rise by the end of the year as the yield on the 30-day interbank cash-rate future due in December climbed 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.58 percent.
`Hawkish Statement'
In May, the central bank forecast underlying inflation would be 2.5 percent this year and between 2.5 percent and 3 percent by June 2008. Economic growth will accelerate to 4.25 percent in the year ending June 30, the Reserve Bank said in Sydney today in its quarterly statement on monetary policy.
``This was clearly a hawkish statement and it lays the groundwork for another RBA rate hike,'' said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at St. Helens Investors in Sydney.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will give his semi-annual testimony on Aug. 17.
Still, Bennett said the currency pared gains made on the RBA statement because of the ongoing uncertainty related to credit markets.
Australia's dollar has declined against 13 of the 16 most- traded currencies this quarter as investors cut positions in so- called carry trades, as losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages caused a credit squeeze. The Australian dollar was one of the favorite carry-trade currencies as investors took advantage of the country's 6 percentage point rate advantage over Japan to buy higher-yielding assets with borrowed yen.
The currency was at 100.42 yen from 99.96 yen late in New York last week.
Risk Aversion
``Australian dollar is faced with yen carry trades being unwound and a general shift to risk aversion that is yet to fully run its course,'' Bennett said. ``That will lead to an ongoing period of selling.''
The currency may touch 82.50 cents before rising again, helped by its commodity exports to Asia, Bennett said.
Raw material exports, which add about 14 percent to Australia's economic growth, have helped the currency gain 57 percent over the past five years. The Westpac Commodity Futures Index, an export weighted average of exchange-traded commodity futures prices, has more than doubled in the same period.
Five-Month High
The currency also advanced to the highest in five months against the New Zealand dollar.
Australia's dollar has gained 4 percent against its neighbors' currency since July 26 when Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor raised rates to 8.25 percent and said the cost of borrowing may be high enough to contain inflation.
``We definitely like the Aussie more than the kiwi,'' said Danica Hampton, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington, referring to the currencies by their nicknames. ``The Australian central bank has a risk of a further rate hike whereas the RBNZ is closer to its peak.''
Australia's dollar was at NZ$1.1403 and reached NZ$1.1430, the highest since March 8.
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