Australia, New Zealand Dollars Rise After U.S. Stocks Rebound(页 1) - 房地产贷款投资专区 -

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Rise After U.S. Stocks Rebound

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Rise After U.S. Stocks Rebound

By David McIntyre

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained for a second day against the yen as a rally in U.S. stocks attracted investors to higher-yielding assets funded by loans from Japan.

The two currencies headed for weekly gains, recovering from two-month lows, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average had the first two-day gain in two weeks. New Zealand's 7.75 percentage point and Australia's 5.75 point interest-rate premium over Japan make the currencies favorites for so-called carry trades.

``The Dow last night brought the carry trade scenario back,'' said Paul Milton, chief dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``There's a little bit left in this move up in the Aussie and kiwi,'' he said, referring to the currencies by their nicknames.

The Australian dollar gained 0.7 percent to 102.18 yen at 4:07 p.m. in Sydney from late in Asia yesterday. The currency traded at 101.03 yen late in New York July 27 and fell below 100 yen on Aug. 1 for the first time in three months. Against the U.S. dollar, it advanced 0.3 percent to 85.80 cents.

New Zealand's dollar rose 0.6 percent to 91.36 yen from yesterday. It was at 90.78 yen late last week and touched 88.64 yen on Aug. 1, the weakest since May 31. Against the U.S. dollar, the currency gained 0.3 percent to 76.71 cents.

38 Percent Return

New Zealand's official cash rate, at 8.25 percent, is the highest after Iceland's among countries with the top credit rating at Moody's Investors Service. Australia's rate is at a six-year high of 6.25 percent and may be increased as soon as next week, according to 20 of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Japan's 0.5 percent overnight lending rate is the lowest of any major economy. The differential has helped the New Zealand dollar gain 28 percent and Australia's advance 17 percent versus the yen in the past 12 months. Brazil's real was the second- biggest gainer in that time, rising 20 percent.

Investors would have made 38 percent in interest and currency gains over the past 12 months by buying New Zealand's three-month deposits with money borrowed in Japan at the equivalent rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The return in Australia was 24 percent.

Scott Young, senior foreign-exchange trader at Arab Bank Australia Ltd., said the currencies were likely to weaken again versus the yen as further news related to losses on subprime mortgages in the U.S. emerged.

``The equity and credit market related news has dominated and we're not at the end of the road,'' said Young from Sydney at the unit of Jordan-based Arab Bank Plc. ``I have a preference to sell on rallies until everything calms down.''

`Not an Issue'

Fletcher Building Ltd., the world's biggest maker of colored building board, will close a mill in New Zealand after the rising currency eroded export earnings.

Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said Japan and Australia didn't have a one-on-one discussion on the carry trade and it's ``not an issue'' for Australia. Costello is attending a meeting of finance ministers from the 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group in Coolum, Australia. The meeting ends today.

Australian government bonds were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note unchanged at 5.95 percent. New Zealand's equivalent yield declined 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.41 percent.

哪个高手告诉我,  为什么US stock升了,  aussie dollor为什么会升? 具体点

风险担忧情绪

能具体点吗?

因为炒股的钱大多都是借入日圆和瑞郎，然后股市大跌，会引发多头恐慌，获利平仓，然后日圆，瑞朗涨，引起套息交易中的高息货币澳元跌。。。涨则相反，就是担忧情绪

谢啦...不过中间还有有点不懂..

股市跌怎么会导致日圆涨呢, 能具体点吗?

呵呵，大清早起来看开盘~
我的答案不权威啊，是我自己的理解和想法
因为日圆瑞郎的低息性，所以很多国际炒家都是通过利差交易借入日圆和瑞郎。。。。就像你借钱做生意找利率低的银行借一样
但等到股市大跌的时候，市场就开始恐慌，很多多头开始结利拿钱走人，但是借日元总得还日元吧？所以就引起日元需求增大，然后日元升值。
应该是这样的。。。我是草根，没学过FIN，如果分析错误不要怪我啊

我的分析上这样: 日本的overnight cash rate是 0.5%, 所以借的人都是借短期的..
借了还钱应该跟demand没关系,但是钱总要借的,这么便宜.所以借了的话有两个option,第一个是买aussie跟NZ的T-notes, 另一个是买股票. 如果股市升的话,应该有更多的人去买股票而不是去买bond..那么相对aussie notes的demand 就没那么高了, aussie dollor也会相对降点..

可是这样的结果是相反的..

不啊。。套息交易要影响汇率的（排除其他基本面），借了是要还，但是套息交易是直接持仓吃过夜利息，没人会傻到拿了利息就还了在买吧？大多数人都是一直持仓，然后现在的跌就是因为美股的大跌让市场担忧，所以日圆得势，然后引起套息交易者的恐慌，然后获利平仓，抛售澳元，所以通过交叉盘影响了澳元的跌。

明白了, 就是市场恐慌然后然后卖掉澳元的asset..所以澳元贬值